本期案例以 9 月 3 日 MNQ 的兩個觀察時段為核心,記錄區間擴張後如何運用三日支撐壓力、90 分鐘研究視窗與費波那契延伸比率建立情境。
This September 3 MNQ case centers on two observation windows and documents how three-day support/resistance, a 90-minute study window, and Fibonacci extension ratios can frame scenarios after range expansion.
已知市場區間 Observed Market Ranges
29282 − 29083 = 199 點 / points
29542 − 29222 = 320 點 / points
美國早盤區間比隔夜區間多 121 點,約為隔夜區間的 1.61 倍。這項比較描述波動擴張,不單獨提供方向訊號。
The U.S. morning range was 121 points wider, approximately 1.61 times the overnight range. This describes volatility expansion; by itself it does not provide a directional signal.
三日支撐壓力方法 Three-Day Support/Resistance Method
- 建立三日地圖 / Build the three-day map.
標記最近三個交易日的高點、低點、收盤與反覆測試區域。 Mark the prior three sessions’ highs, lows, closes, and repeatedly tested areas. - 辨識重疊與反應 / Identify overlap and reaction.
把多日重疊價位視為區域,不把單一點位當成保證反轉的位置。 Treat multi-day overlap as a zone rather than a guaranteed reversal at one exact price. - 用當日區間確認 / Confirm with the current range.
觀察 29083、29282、29222 與 29542 附近是否出現接受、拒絕或重新測試,再更新研究情境。 Observe acceptance, rejection, or retests near 29083, 29282, 29222, and 29542, then update the research scenario.
90 分鐘研究 90-Minute Study
以預先定義的 90 分鐘視窗記錄開盤後的高低點、區間寬度與價格是否維持在三日關鍵區域之外。視窗結束後才固定研究區間,可減少過早推論。
Use a predefined 90-minute window to record the opening high, low, range width, and whether price holds beyond key three-day zones. Fixing the study range only after the window closes reduces premature conclusions.
2.618 與 3.24 延伸目標 2.618 and 3.24 Extension Targets
研究以已確認的基準區間投射 2.618 與 3.24 倍延伸。兩者是情境目標,用來評估價格接近延伸區時的動能、停滯或反轉反應,不是成交指令。
下方投射 / Downside projection: 基準高點 −(區間 × 2.618 或 3.24)
The study projects 2.618 and 3.24 multiples from a confirmed reference range. These scenario targets help evaluate momentum, stalling, or reversal near an extension area; they are not execution instructions.
研究聲明 Research Disclaimer
本案例僅供研究與教育用途,不構成交易、投資、法律或稅務建議。期貨具有高度風險;歷史區間、支撐壓力與延伸目標不能保證未來結果。
This case is for research and educational purposes only and is not trading, investment, legal, or tax advice. Futures involve substantial risk. Historical ranges, support/resistance, and extension targets do not guarantee future results.
